Pelosi Gambles on Emissions Bill, Schedules House Vote for Tomorrow

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is gambling that she can get the controversial Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill passed by this Friday.(image: John Shinkle via politico.com)

The website politico.com reported yesterday on a daring move by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi that could turn into the biggest victory or the biggest defeat of her six-month run as what the article called Obama’s “legislative ramrod.”

Pelosi had first said she would pass the controversial Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill before the start of the July 4th recess. Then, on Monday, she upped the ante, scheduling a Friday vote on the legislation. If the bill passes the full house vote, it will have to go on to the Senate for a full vote there. If it passes both houses, the bill would then be signed into law by President Obama.

We’ve reported extensively on the Waxman-Markey bill here on The HEAT Zone.  Basically, the bill’s cap and trade system works like this: the government sets a limit or “cap” on the amount of air pollution that a given source, say a power plant, can emit. The source then receives a permit for that amount. If you reduce your emissions below the cap, you earn credits you can sell to another source that can’t or won’t reduce its own emissions. Most of the permits are expected to be given away. The remainder will be sold and the income generated is supposed to find its way back into the economy in the form of various grants and incentives.

While the bill aims mainly to reduce greenhouse emissions from major, highly visible, pollution sources such as coal burning power plants, it will also impact other sectors, like agriculture. Many Republicans and even some Democrats from farm states have branded the bill an energy tax which they say would do serious damage to agriculture and ultimately hit all Americans in the pocketbook.  Arguing against this, a just-released study by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts the cost to the average American household would be just $175 per year.

Some of the resistance from the agricultural sector has evidently been smoothed away. House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), co-author of the bill, announced on Tuesday that he had struck a deal with Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), who had led a push for greater protections for farmers and rural interests.
“We have an agreement, and we’re moving forward on Friday. We’re going to pass this bill,” Waxman told reporters on Tuesday evening after he and Peterson had met with moderate Democrats in the Blue Dog Coalition. According to its mission statement, “the fiscally conservative Democratic Blue Dog Coalition was formed in 1995 with the goal of representing the center of the House of Representatives and appealing to the mainstream values of the American public.”

Asked if he’d be able to support the bill on the floor, Peterson said, “Yes.” According politico, this was a major turn of events. Just hours earlier, a Democratic aide had said that leadership “probably” had the votes to get the bill passed, “but who knows?”
Pelosi meanwhile stands to gain or lose in a major way. Politico points out that “even as her approval rating slumps south of 40 percent, she has maintained a firm grip on the Democrats — a record that could be reversed by a defeat this week on climate change.”
As for Waxman-Markey, even if the bill passes in the House, it could still face major opposition in the Senate. Leading Republican opponents of the bill, notably Senator James Imhofe, Republican of Oklahoma, have predicted they would defeat the bill there.